THANKS TO EXPORTS, PANGASIUS PRICES WILL RECOVER IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR

Experts forecast that pangasius demand will recover in the US and China markets in the second half of the year, thereby leading to improved selling prices.

According to the General Department of Fisheries, Vietnam’s pangasius export volume in the first 4 months of 2023 reached 298 thousand tons, down 28.1% over the same period last year. Export turnover reached 724 million USD, a deep decrease of 40%. The reason mainly stems from difficulties in January such as weak demand, congested transport and the Zero-COVID policy in China has not ended.

At the same time, after a period of continuous decline, pangasius prices recorded a stable trend in the first 2 months of the year in most major markets such as the US, EU, and China. By March 2023, pangasius prices will increase slightly by 6% compared to the previous month in the Chinese market and by 20% in the US market. However, in April, pangasius prices continued to decrease by 1-3% in mainstream markets.

Experts said the consequences of persistent inflation and retailers’ inventories are one of the difficulties for the seafood industry, including pangasius. Vietnamese farmers and seafood enterprises are facing challenges including declining markets, rising raw material and other input costs, plummeting profits, and lack of capital to turn around production and business.

Pangasius prices continued to fall in April. Photo: VCBS

Experts from VCBS Securities forecast that pangasius demand will recover in the US and China markets in the second half of the year. Specifically in the US, inflation is gradually cooling, creating conditions to stimulate consumption in this market. In addition, the end of the second quarter is the warehouse hoarding period of retailers in the US to serve the peak holiday season at the end of the year. These are the driving forces for pangasius prices to increase in North America.

Pangasius export turnover in the first 4 months of 2023 reached 724 million USD, down 40% over the same period last year. Photo: VCBS

On the Chinese side, in February, the market had a shortage of raw fingerlings and pangasius because processing enterprises began to increase capacity by 15-30% compared to the beginning of the year. The demand for raw pangasius only cooled down slightly in March when the pontoon bridge at Mong Cai was repaired in 5 days, causing transportation activities to be stalled. By 10.3, the pontoon bridge had been completed. Therefore, it is likely that the pangasius market will recover after April 4.

Not only that, the occupancy rate at ports in North America and Northern Europe remained at 10-85%, no longer congested like the last wave in 2022. Water freight rates are still maintaining low compared to the peak of the epidemic season. With the supply of ships and containers in an oversupplied state, experts forecast that Vietnam’s seafood exports to Western countries will be more favorable in 2023.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Processors (VASEP), with the current economic and political fluctuations, it is difficult to make solid forecasts for the period of 2023 – 2024. However, because it is an essential commodity, seafood still has a certain demand in markets.

The post-COVID-19 context and high inflation have seen many changes in demand trends for seafood products. High-priced seafood products have been and will continue to experience a decrease in demand in the short term. Affordable items such as dried fish, canned fish, fish sauce, pangasius and fish cakes may still have better opportunities in many markets.

(Source: https://laodong.vn)

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