Global octopus catches are continuing to decline following the downward trend that has occurred in recent years. Mining quotas are reduced, it is expected that supply will become increasingly scarce.
However, market demand is weakening, possibly due to inflation. Currently, octopus prices have decreased slightly but are expected to recover. Meanwhile, the global squid supply is very diverse and abundant. Squid catches in South America are increasing, except in Argentina, where catches in 2023 are lower than in previous years.
Octopus
The octopus season in Morocco officially began on January 1, 2024, which seems to promise a bumper harvest as initial reports from many fishing vessels indicate a very abundant catch. However, the quota for the 2024 crop year was set at the end of December 2023 at 23,300 tons, which can be considered quite low.
Mauritania is harvesting about 8% of the global octopus supply with an average annual production in 2019-2021 of 35,000 tons. Most of this is exported to Spain.
The discussion about octopus farming has not ended yet. The world’s first commercial octopus farm is being built in the Canary Islands and appears to be on track despite negative criticism. According to the farm owner, farming technology has now been applied; The farm plans to raise one million octopuses each year, equivalent to 3,000 tons of octopus that will be harvested annually.
Commerce
The supply of octopus on the international market is scarce in the first 9 months of 2023. Japan’s imports decreased by 6.5% to 27,792 tons, down from 29,739 tons in the same period last year. There are some major changes in the ranking of octopus suppliers:
Mauritania has risen to the top of the list of suppliers and the country increased its octopus exports to Japan +40% to 8,069 tons in the first 9 months of 2023; while the second largest supplier China saw a decline of 9.3%, from 7,881 tons in the first 9 months of 2022 to 7,150 tons in the same period of 2023. Morocco sharply reduced exports to Japan Ban (-51.7%) from 6,731 tons to 3,248 tons.
South Korea also imported less octopus in the first nine months of 2023, with imports reaching 49,101 tons, 3.5% lower than the same period last year. The largest supplier to the Korean market is China, which increased exports +12.2% to 23,267 tons, accounting for 47.4% of total Korean octopus imports. Other major suppliers include Vietnam and Thailand, but both have reduced export volumes; Vietnam supplied 17,493 tons (-11.8%), while Thailand supplied 3,543 tons (-29.2%). Octopus imports from Mauritania increased by nearly 75%, from 1,136 tons to 1,680 tons.
Squid
Argentina’s Illex squid season also begins in early January 2024. However, catches so far remain very low. The fleet mainly consists of Argentine-flagged vessels owned by Asian companies. According to official data from the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries), the Argentine fleet caught 52,500 tons of Illex squid in the third quarter of 2023. This is an increase compared to compared to the same period last year, when only 61 tons of squid arrived at the port. However, in October, the amount of cargo arriving at the port was almost non-existent: only 6 tons! This figure represents a deep decrease (-92%) compared to the 79 tons mined in October last year.
Argentine vessels reported weak catches during the Illex squid season, similar to the situation of Chinese vessels operating just outside Argentina’s exclusive economic zone. Chinese vessels began Illex squid fishing operations from December 20, 2023, while Argentinian vessels started later, from January 12, 2024. Poor production prospects will create pressure. pressure on European and North American buyers, prices could rise.
Commerce
During the review period (January to September 2023), the price of Argentine Illex ink in the Chinese market was low until early March, then started to increase until mid-May and since then the price maintained at a high level.
Since 2019, US imports of squid and cuttlefish have tended to decrease. In the first 9 months of 2023, the US reduced squid imports by about 26% over the same period last year and continued to decrease further in October 2023. All of the largest suppliers reduced the volume of squid exports to the market. American market, specifically: China (−39.7%), Argentina (−12%) and India (−41%). Likewise, US import prices, which were rising steadily until January 2022, have begun to decline since then.
Japan’s imports of squid and cuttlefish in the first 9 months of 2023 reached 121,064 tons, down 3.8% over the same period last year. The main supplier, China, decreased by 6.3% in volume; however, China still accounts for nearly 57% of Japan’s total imports. In contrast, Peru and Chile have increased their exports to Japan. Imports from Peru increased from 18,332 tons in the January-September 2022 period to 23,592 tons in the same period in 2023, while imports from Chile increased from 7,409 tons to 7,820 tons during the same period under review.
During this period, China’s imports of squid and cuttlefish increased significantly to 359,446 tons (up 40%) from 256,817 tons compared to the first nine months of 2022. The largest supplier was Peru, which increased exports from 15,324 tons in 2022 to a whopping 144,217 tons in 2023. In contrast, imports from Indonesia decreased by 13.8% to only 52,170 tons. The third largest supplier to China is the US, which increased exports from 30,926 tons in the first nine months of 2022 to 33,201 tons in the same period in 2023 (+7.4%).
Despite so much import, squid consumption in the Chinese domestic market has not increased. Even squid consumption in the Chinese domestic market is decreasing. This is creating great difficulties for businesses importing and trading ink, they have a large amount of inventory and it is increasing day by day. Therefore, the ink market outlook in China is quite bleak.
Along with that, China’s exports also decreased by 14.8%, from 447,483 tons in the first 9 months of 2022 to 381,159 tons in the same period in 2023. Exports to all major markets decreased: Japan decreased 6.7% down to 75,867 tons; Thailand decreased 16.2% to 53,193 tons; and South Korea decreased by 10.2% to 41,657 tons.
In the Korean market, squid imports increased by 9.3%, from 117,380 tons during January to September 2022 to 128,263 tons during the same period in 2023. The largest suppliers are Peru (accounting for 40 %), China (32.8%) and Chile (9.6%).
The largest squid market in Europe is Spain. However, Spanish imports grow modestly by +5%, from 215,667 tons in the nine-month period of 2022 to 226,253 tons in the same period in 2023. Peru and the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) are the suppliers largest for this market, followed by Morocco.
Forecast
Octopus supply is tight and prices will be high. For squid, the situation is a bit better but supplies from Argentina are low; Prices are expected to remain high or even increase further. China is forced to be more active in the international cephalopod mollusk market: Because this country has imported a lot but does not export as much as before. In 2024, the total global squid supply is expected to be lower than before as catches off the coast of Argentina have been disappointing so far.
Source: (https://tongcucthuysan.gov.vn)